Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions
Identifieur interne : 000476 ( 2020/Analysis ); précédent : 000475; suivant : 000477Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions
Auteurs : Zifeng Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Zhiqi Zeng [République populaire de Chine] ; Ke Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Sook-San Wong [République populaire de Chine] ; Wenhua Liang [République populaire de Chine] ; Mark Zanin [République populaire de Chine] ; Peng Liu [République populaire de Chine] ; Xudong Cao [République populaire de Chine] ; Zhongqiang Gao [République populaire de Chine] ; Zhitong Mai [République populaire de Chine] ; Jingyi Liang [République populaire de Chine] ; Xiaoqing Liu [République populaire de Chine] ; Shiyue Li [République populaire de Chine] ; Yimin Li [République populaire de Chine] ; Feng Ye [République populaire de Chine] ; Weijie Guan [République populaire de Chine] ; Yifan Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Fei Li [République populaire de Chine] ; Shengmei Luo [République populaire de Chine] ; Yuqi Xie [République populaire de Chine] ; Bin Liu [République populaire de Chine] ; Zhoulang Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Shaobo Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Yaonan Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Nanshan Zhong [République populaire de Chine] ; Jianxing He [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Journal of Thoracic Disease [ 2072-1439 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak originating in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, coincided with
We integrated population migration data before and after January 23 and most updated COVID-19 epidemiological data into the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model to derive the epidemic curve. We also used an artificial intelligence (AI) approach, trained on the 2003 SARS data, to predict the epidemic.
We found that the epidemic of China should peak by late February, showing gradual decline by end of April. A five-day delay in implementation would have increased epidemic size in mainland China three-fold. Lifting the Hubei quarantine would lead to a second epidemic peak in Hubei province in mid-March and extend the epidemic to late April, a result corroborated by the machine learning prediction.
Our dynamic SEIR model was effective in predicting the COVID-19 epidemic peaks and sizes. The implementation of control measures on January 23 2020 was indispensable in reducing the eventual COVID-19 epidemic size.
Url:
DOI: 10.21037/jtd.2020.02.64
PubMed: 32274081
PubMed Central: 7139011
Affiliations:
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Gao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5">Jinling Institute of Technology, Nanjing Innovative Data Technologies,<institution>Inc.</institution>,<addr-line>Nanjing 210014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mai, Zhitong" sort="Mai, Zhitong" uniqKey="Mai Z" first="Zhitong" last="Mai">Zhitong Mai</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liang, Jingyi" sort="Liang, Jingyi" uniqKey="Liang J" first="Jingyi" last="Liang">Jingyi Liang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, Xiaoqing" sort="Liu, Xiaoqing" uniqKey="Liu X" first="Xiaoqing" last="Liu">Xiaoqing Liu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Shiyue" sort="Li, Shiyue" uniqKey="Li S" first="Shiyue" last="Li">Shiyue Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Yimin" sort="Li, Yimin" uniqKey="Li Y" first="Yimin" last="Li">Yimin Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ye, Feng" sort="Ye, Feng" uniqKey="Ye F" first="Feng" last="Ye">Feng Ye</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Guan, Weijie" sort="Guan, Weijie" uniqKey="Guan W" first="Weijie" last="Guan">Weijie Guan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Yifan" sort="Yang, Yifan" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yifan" last="Yang">Yifan Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff6">Transwarp Technologies (Shanghai) Co.,<institution>Ltd.</institution>,<addr-line>Shanghai 200030</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Fei" sort="Li, Fei" uniqKey="Li F" first="Fei" last="Li">Fei Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff6">Transwarp Technologies (Shanghai) Co.,<institution>Ltd.</institution>,<addr-line>Shanghai 200030</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Luo, Shengmei" sort="Luo, Shengmei" uniqKey="Luo S" first="Shengmei" last="Luo">Shengmei Luo</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff6">Transwarp Technologies (Shanghai) Co.,<institution>Ltd.</institution>,<addr-line>Shanghai 200030</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xie, Yuqi" sort="Xie, Yuqi" uniqKey="Xie Y" first="Yuqi" last="Xie">Yuqi Xie</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, Bin" sort="Liu, Bin" uniqKey="Liu B" first="Bin" last="Liu">Bin Liu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff7"><institution>Kunming University of Science and Technology</institution>,<addr-line>Kunming 650504</addr-line>,<country>China</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Zhoulang" sort="Wang, Zhoulang" uniqKey="Wang Z" first="Zhoulang" last="Wang">Zhoulang Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Shaobo" sort="Zhang, Shaobo" uniqKey="Zhang S" first="Shaobo" last="Zhang">Shaobo Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Hengqin WhaleMed Technology Co.,<institution>Ltd.</institution>,<addr-line>Zhuhai 519000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Yaonan" sort="Wang, Yaonan" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Yaonan" last="Wang">Yaonan Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Hengqin WhaleMed Technology Co.,<institution>Ltd.</institution>,<addr-line>Zhuhai 519000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhong, Nanshan" sort="Zhong, Nanshan" uniqKey="Zhong N" first="Nanshan" last="Zhong">Nanshan Zhong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="He, Jianxing" sort="He, Jianxing" uniqKey="He J" first="Jianxing" last="He">Jianxing He</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">32274081</idno><idno type="pmc">7139011</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7139011</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7139011</idno><idno type="doi">10.21037/jtd.2020.02.64</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000C63</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000C63</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000C63</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" 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Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Macau Institute for Applied Research in Medicine and Health, State Key Laboratory of Quality Research in Chinese Medicine, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zeng, Zhiqi" sort="Zeng, Zhiqi" uniqKey="Zeng Z" first="Zhiqi" last="Zeng">Zhiqi Zeng</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Ke" sort="Wang, Ke" uniqKey="Wang K" first="Ke" last="Wang">Ke Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Hengqin WhaleMed Technology Co.,<institution>Ltd.</institution>,<addr-line>Zhuhai 519000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wong, Sook San" sort="Wong, Sook San" uniqKey="Wong S" first="Sook-San" last="Wong">Sook-San Wong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4">School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liang, Wenhua" sort="Liang, Wenhua" uniqKey="Liang W" first="Wenhua" last="Liang">Wenhua Liang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zanin, Mark" sort="Zanin, Mark" uniqKey="Zanin M" first="Mark" last="Zanin">Mark Zanin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4">School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, Peng" sort="Liu, Peng" uniqKey="Liu P" first="Peng" last="Liu">Peng Liu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5">Jinling Institute of Technology, Nanjing Innovative Data Technologies,<institution>Inc.</institution>,<addr-line>Nanjing 210014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cao, Xudong" sort="Cao, Xudong" uniqKey="Cao X" first="Xudong" last="Cao">Xudong Cao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5">Jinling Institute of Technology, Nanjing Innovative Data Technologies,<institution>Inc.</institution>,<addr-line>Nanjing 210014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, Zhongqiang" sort="Gao, Zhongqiang" uniqKey="Gao Z" first="Zhongqiang" last="Gao">Zhongqiang Gao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5">Jinling Institute of Technology, Nanjing Innovative Data Technologies,<institution>Inc.</institution>,<addr-line>Nanjing 210014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mai, Zhitong" sort="Mai, Zhitong" uniqKey="Mai Z" first="Zhitong" last="Mai">Zhitong Mai</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liang, Jingyi" sort="Liang, Jingyi" uniqKey="Liang J" first="Jingyi" last="Liang">Jingyi Liang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, Xiaoqing" sort="Liu, Xiaoqing" uniqKey="Liu X" first="Xiaoqing" last="Liu">Xiaoqing Liu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Shiyue" sort="Li, Shiyue" uniqKey="Li S" first="Shiyue" last="Li">Shiyue Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Yimin" sort="Li, Yimin" uniqKey="Li Y" first="Yimin" last="Li">Yimin Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ye, Feng" sort="Ye, Feng" uniqKey="Ye F" first="Feng" last="Ye">Feng Ye</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Guan, Weijie" sort="Guan, Weijie" uniqKey="Guan W" first="Weijie" last="Guan">Weijie Guan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Yifan" sort="Yang, Yifan" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yifan" last="Yang">Yifan Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff6">Transwarp Technologies (Shanghai) Co.,<institution>Ltd.</institution>,<addr-line>Shanghai 200030</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Fei" sort="Li, Fei" uniqKey="Li F" first="Fei" last="Li">Fei Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff6">Transwarp Technologies (Shanghai) Co.,<institution>Ltd.</institution>,<addr-line>Shanghai 200030</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Luo, Shengmei" sort="Luo, Shengmei" uniqKey="Luo S" first="Shengmei" last="Luo">Shengmei Luo</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff6">Transwarp Technologies (Shanghai) Co.,<institution>Ltd.</institution>,<addr-line>Shanghai 200030</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xie, Yuqi" sort="Xie, Yuqi" uniqKey="Xie Y" first="Yuqi" last="Xie">Yuqi Xie</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, Bin" sort="Liu, Bin" uniqKey="Liu B" first="Bin" last="Liu">Bin Liu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff7"><institution>Kunming University of Science and Technology</institution>,<addr-line>Kunming 650504</addr-line>,<country>China</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Zhoulang" sort="Wang, Zhoulang" uniqKey="Wang Z" first="Zhoulang" last="Wang">Zhoulang Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Shaobo" sort="Zhang, Shaobo" uniqKey="Zhang S" first="Shaobo" last="Zhang">Shaobo Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Hengqin WhaleMed Technology Co.,<institution>Ltd.</institution>,<addr-line>Zhuhai 519000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Yaonan" sort="Wang, Yaonan" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Yaonan" last="Wang">Yaonan Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Hengqin WhaleMed Technology Co.,<institution>Ltd.</institution>,<addr-line>Zhuhai 519000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhong, Nanshan" sort="Zhong, Nanshan" uniqKey="Zhong N" first="Nanshan" last="Zhong">Nanshan Zhong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="He, Jianxing" sort="He, Jianxing" uniqKey="He J" first="Jianxing" last="He">Jianxing He</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University,<institution>State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease (Guangzhou Medical University)</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510230</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of Thoracic Disease</title><idno type="ISSN">2072-1439</idno><idno type="eISSN">2077-6624</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak originating in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, coincided with <italic>chunyun</italic>, the period of mass migration for the annual Spring Festival. To contain its spread, China adopted unprecedented nationwide interventions on January 23 2020. These policies included large-scale quarantine, strict controls on travel and extensive monitoring of suspected cases. However, it is unknown whether these policies have had an impact on the epidemic. We sought to show how these control measures impacted the containment of the epidemic.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>We integrated population migration data before and after January 23 and most updated COVID-19 epidemiological data into the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model to derive the epidemic curve. We also used an artificial intelligence (AI) approach, trained on the 2003 SARS data, to predict the epidemic.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>We found that the epidemic of China should peak by late February, showing gradual decline by end of April. A five-day delay in implementation would have increased epidemic size in mainland China three-fold. Lifting the Hubei quarantine would lead to a second epidemic peak in Hubei province in mid-March and extend the epidemic to late April, a result corroborated by the machine learning prediction.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Our dynamic SEIR model was effective in predicting the COVID-19 epidemic peaks and sizes. The implementation of control measures on January 23 2020 was indispensable in reducing the eventual COVID-19 epidemic size.</p></sec></div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li></country></list><tree><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Yang, Zifeng" sort="Yang, Zifeng" uniqKey="Yang Z" first="Zifeng" last="Yang">Zifeng Yang</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Cao, Xudong" sort="Cao, Xudong" uniqKey="Cao X" first="Xudong" last="Cao">Xudong Cao</name><name sortKey="Gao, Zhongqiang" sort="Gao, Zhongqiang" uniqKey="Gao Z" first="Zhongqiang" last="Gao">Zhongqiang Gao</name><name sortKey="Guan, Weijie" sort="Guan, Weijie" uniqKey="Guan W" first="Weijie" last="Guan">Weijie Guan</name><name sortKey="He, Jianxing" sort="He, Jianxing" uniqKey="He J" first="Jianxing" last="He">Jianxing He</name><name sortKey="Li, Fei" sort="Li, Fei" uniqKey="Li F" first="Fei" last="Li">Fei Li</name><name sortKey="Li, Shiyue" sort="Li, Shiyue" uniqKey="Li S" first="Shiyue" last="Li">Shiyue Li</name><name sortKey="Li, Yimin" sort="Li, Yimin" uniqKey="Li Y" first="Yimin" last="Li">Yimin Li</name><name sortKey="Liang, Jingyi" sort="Liang, Jingyi" uniqKey="Liang J" first="Jingyi" last="Liang">Jingyi Liang</name><name sortKey="Liang, Wenhua" sort="Liang, Wenhua" uniqKey="Liang W" first="Wenhua" last="Liang">Wenhua Liang</name><name sortKey="Liu, Bin" sort="Liu, Bin" uniqKey="Liu B" first="Bin" last="Liu">Bin Liu</name><name sortKey="Liu, Peng" sort="Liu, Peng" uniqKey="Liu P" first="Peng" last="Liu">Peng Liu</name><name sortKey="Liu, Xiaoqing" sort="Liu, Xiaoqing" uniqKey="Liu X" first="Xiaoqing" last="Liu">Xiaoqing Liu</name><name sortKey="Luo, Shengmei" sort="Luo, Shengmei" uniqKey="Luo S" first="Shengmei" last="Luo">Shengmei Luo</name><name sortKey="Mai, Zhitong" sort="Mai, Zhitong" uniqKey="Mai Z" first="Zhitong" last="Mai">Zhitong Mai</name><name sortKey="Wang, Ke" sort="Wang, Ke" uniqKey="Wang K" first="Ke" last="Wang">Ke Wang</name><name sortKey="Wang, Yaonan" sort="Wang, Yaonan" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Yaonan" last="Wang">Yaonan Wang</name><name sortKey="Wang, Zhoulang" sort="Wang, Zhoulang" uniqKey="Wang Z" first="Zhoulang" last="Wang">Zhoulang Wang</name><name sortKey="Wong, Sook San" sort="Wong, Sook San" uniqKey="Wong S" first="Sook-San" last="Wong">Sook-San Wong</name><name sortKey="Wong, Sook San" sort="Wong, Sook San" uniqKey="Wong S" first="Sook-San" last="Wong">Sook-San Wong</name><name sortKey="Xie, Yuqi" sort="Xie, Yuqi" uniqKey="Xie Y" first="Yuqi" last="Xie">Yuqi Xie</name><name sortKey="Yang, Yifan" sort="Yang, Yifan" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yifan" last="Yang">Yifan Yang</name><name sortKey="Yang, Zifeng" sort="Yang, Zifeng" uniqKey="Yang Z" first="Zifeng" last="Yang">Zifeng Yang</name><name sortKey="Ye, Feng" sort="Ye, Feng" uniqKey="Ye F" first="Feng" last="Ye">Feng Ye</name><name sortKey="Zanin, Mark" sort="Zanin, Mark" uniqKey="Zanin M" first="Mark" last="Zanin">Mark Zanin</name><name sortKey="Zanin, Mark" sort="Zanin, Mark" uniqKey="Zanin M" first="Mark" last="Zanin">Mark Zanin</name><name sortKey="Zeng, Zhiqi" sort="Zeng, Zhiqi" uniqKey="Zeng Z" first="Zhiqi" last="Zeng">Zhiqi Zeng</name><name sortKey="Zhang, Shaobo" sort="Zhang, Shaobo" uniqKey="Zhang S" first="Shaobo" last="Zhang">Shaobo Zhang</name><name sortKey="Zhong, Nanshan" sort="Zhong, Nanshan" uniqKey="Zhong N" first="Nanshan" last="Zhong">Nanshan Zhong</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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